Spread: New Mexico (-3.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (29%) · New Mexico at 67¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

New Mexico67¢North Dakota State33¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚡

Medium

New Mexico

Consensus Traders

New Mexico 29%

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 66.5¢

+23% since entry · 2 traders

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico67%

North Dakota State34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico2 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares10,056

Combined PnL+$3.0K

North Dakota State5 traders

Total Value$171.57

Total Shares670

Combined PnL-$66.96

New Mexico — 29%North Dakota State — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNew Mexico 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNew Mexico 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNorth Dakota State 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000North Dakota State 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	New Mexicoavg 54¢	$5.3K	$8.3K	+$2.9K	55% 11679-9574 (21253)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	New Mexicoavg 54¢	$122.04	$189.25	+$67.21	75% 2617-875 (3492)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	North Dakota Stateavg 38.6¢	$166.91	$101.74	-$65.17	53% 6396-5735 (12131)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 46¢	$48.98	$48.96	-$0.03	61% 4327-2785 (7112)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 16.9¢	$11.68	$11.04	-$0.64	56% 455-355 (810)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 17.7¢	$5.43	$4.92	-$0.51	53% 207-180 (387)
AD adururuCTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 18¢	$5.53	$4.92	-$0.61	55% 284-231 (515)

HomeRunHazard

New Mexico

Invested

$5,308.2

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

55%

11679-9574 (21253)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

New Mexico

Invested

$122.04

Value

$189.25

PnL

+$67.21

Record

75%

2617-875 (3492)

justaluckydudeCTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$166.91

Value

$101.74

PnL

-$65.17

Record

53%

6396-5735 (12131)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$48.98

Value

$48.96

PnL

-$0.03

Record

61%

4327-2785 (7112)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$11.68

Value

$11.04

PnL

-$0.64

Record

56%

455-355 (810)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$5.43

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$0.51

Record

53%

207-180 (387)

adururuCTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$5.53

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$0.61

Record

55%

284-231 (515)

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNew Mexico 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNew Mexico 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNorth Dakota State 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000North Dakota State 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.