Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold New Mexico, while the market favors North Dakota State (53%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: New Mexico (-13.5)
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (33%) · New Mexico at 47¢ · $393 held · ended Oct 25
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Contrarian
New Mexico
3
New Mexico 33%
$392.71
-$0.81
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors North Dakota State 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | New Mexicoavg 47¢ | $221.37 | $219.93 | -$1.44 | 65% 2682-1438 (4120) |
 RN1 | North Dakota Stateavg 53¢ | $139.39 | $139.39 | +$0 | 55% 43011-35367 (78378) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | North Dakota Stateavg 52¢ | $32.76 | $33.39 | +$0.63 | 53% 6396-5735 (12131) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.