North Dakota State vs. New Mexico

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (57%) · New Mexico at 71¢ · $29K held · ended Oct 25

North Dakota State30¢New Mexico70¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚡

Medium

New Mexico

Consensus Traders

New Mexico 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.9K

Combined PnL

-$782.19

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 70.5¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

North Dakota State30%

New Mexico71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico12 traders

Total Value$26.2K

Total Shares36,588

Combined PnL-$548.21

North Dakota State9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares8,063

Combined PnL-$233.98

New Mexico — 57%North Dakota State — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 30/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on New Mexico) and the top 1000 (11 on North Dakota State) disagree here.

whaleNew Mexico 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNew Mexico 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNew Mexico 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew Mexico 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000North Dakota State 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	New Mexicoavg 66¢	$7.9K	$7.8K	-$56.58	45% 962-1162 (2124)
0xheavy888	New Mexicoavg 64¢	$4.9K	$5.9K	-$36.5	55% 6231-5012 (11243)
VeryLucky888	New Mexicoavg 63¢	$3.2K	$3.9K	+$75	58% 31054-22396 (53450)
TO torta.tech	New Mexicoavg 75.1¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$239.39	75% 5895-1984 (7879)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	New Mexicoavg 83¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$231.18	54% 1002-852 (1854)
Nooserac	New Mexicoavg 83¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$230	52% 5150-4742 (9892)
RN1CTR	North Dakota Stateavg 32¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$263.85	55% 42737-35083 (77820)
DO Donkey14	New Mexicoavg 64¢	$805.09	$968.62	+$163.53	49% 324-331 (655)
HRTrading	New Mexicoavg 69.9¢	$477.47	$478.57	+$1.1	60% 1146-775 (1921)
UP UpTheBlues	New Mexicoavg 70¢	$396.19	$393.37	-$2.82	68% 30394-14619 (45013)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	New Mexicoavg 75.6¢	$388.89	$384.7	-$4.19	53% 6109-5458 (11567)
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 75.6¢	$302.85	$292.53	-$10.32
└ North Dakota State leg	North Dakota Stateavg 25.2¢	$86.04	$92.17	+$6.13
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	North Dakota Stateavg 27.4¢	$200.1	$266.45	+$66.35	51% 922-893 (1815)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	New Mexicoavg 69¢	$258.75	$260.63	+$1.88	63% 22274-13133 (35407)
AJ AJSVCTR	North Dakota Stateavg 26¢	$106.74	$137.53	+$30.79	36% 12701-22288 (34989)
tradecraftCTR	North Dakota Stateavg 31¢	$148.24	$129.11	-$19.13	52% 5450-5048 (10498)
BI BillBenter2026	New Mexicoavg 66¢	$98.34	$108.77	+$10.43	58% 16037-11692 (27729)
AV averagejoetradersCTR	North Dakota Stateavg 26¢	$104	$108	-$2	56% 450-350 (800)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR	North Dakota Stateavg 36¢	$123.57	$87.53	-$36.04	51% 475-463 (938)
LS LSS1<$100	New Mexicoavg 77¢	$80.85	$76.65	-$3.67	72% 1242-493 (1735)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 26.9¢	$49.9	$50.14	-$2.54	54% 203-172 (375)
AD adururuCTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 27¢	$50.14	$50.14	-$8.36	55% 279-224 (503)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 35¢	$13.51	$14.31	+$0.8	54% 13405-11284 (24689)

primm

New Mexico

Invested

$7,861.36

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$56.58

Record

45%

962-1162 (2124)

0xheavy888

New Mexico

Invested

$4,926

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$36.5

Record

55%

6231-5012 (11243)

VeryLucky888

New Mexico

Invested

$3,150

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$75

Record

58%

31054-22396 (53450)

torta.tech

New Mexico

Invested

$3,211.21

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$239.39

Record

75%

5895-1984 (7879)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

New Mexico

Invested

$1,918.78

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$231.18

Record

54%

1002-852 (1854)

Nooserac

New Mexico

Invested

$1,909

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$230

Record

52%

5150-4742 (9892)

RN1CTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$1,688.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$263.85

Record

55%

42737-35083 (77820)

Donkey14

New Mexico

Invested

$805.09

Value

$968.62

PnL

+$163.53

Record

49%

324-331 (655)

HRTrading

New Mexico

Invested

$477.47

Value

$478.57

PnL

+$1.1

Record

60%

1146-775 (1921)

UpTheBlues

New Mexico

Invested

$396.19

Value

$393.37

PnL

-$2.82

Record

68%

30394-14619 (45013)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$388.89

Value

$384.7

PnL

-$4.19

Record

53%

6109-5458 (11567)

Both legs:

New Mexico$302.8575.6¢-$10.32

North Dakota State$86.0425.2¢+$6.13

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$200.1

Value

$266.45

PnL

+$66.35

Record

51%

922-893 (1815)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

New Mexico

Invested

$258.75

Value

$260.63

PnL

+$1.88

Record

63%

22274-13133 (35407)

AJSVCTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$106.74

Value

$137.53

PnL

+$30.79

Record

36%

12701-22288 (34989)

tradecraftCTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$148.24

Value

$129.11

PnL

-$19.13

Record

52%

5450-5048 (10498)

BillBenter2026

New Mexico

Invested

$98.34

Value

$108.77

PnL

+$10.43

Record

58%

16037-11692 (27729)

averagejoetradersCTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$104

Value

$108

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

450-350 (800)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$123.57

Value

$87.53

PnL

-$36.04

Record

51%

475-463 (938)

LSS1<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$80.85

Value

$76.65

PnL

-$3.67

Record

72%

1242-493 (1735)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$49.9

Value

$50.14

PnL

-$2.54

Record

54%

203-172 (375)

adururuCTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$50.14

Value

$50.14

PnL

-$8.36

Record

55%

279-224 (503)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$13.51

Value

$14.31

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

13405-11284 (24689)

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 30/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on New Mexico) and the top 1000 (11 on North Dakota State) disagree here.

whaleNew Mexico 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNew Mexico 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNew Mexico 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew Mexico 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000North Dakota State 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.