Houston vs. Utah: O/U 59.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 58¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25
⚡
Medium
Under
4
Under 50%
$8.1K
$1.6K
56.7¢ → 58¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Underavg 56.7¢ | $5.5K | $7.2K | +$1.6K | 55% 27-22 (49) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Overavg 42¢ | $840 | $840 | +$0 | 58% 786-578 (1364) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $55.44 | $52.92 | -$2.52 | 75% 2553-839 (3392) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $42.98 | $44.51 | +$0.77 | 65% 2597-1387 (3984) |
Invested
$5,512.53
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
55%
27-22 (49)
Invested
$840
Value
$840
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
786-578 (1364)
Invested
$55.44
Value
$52.92
PnL
-$2.52
Record
75%
2553-839 (3392)
Invested
$42.98
Value
$44.51
PnL
+$0.77
Record
65%
2597-1387 (3984)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.