Houston vs. Utah: O/U 39.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 55¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚡
Medium
Under
6
Under 67%
$1.9K
$0.46
66.8¢ → 55¢
-18% since entry · 4 traders
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 64.5¢ | $918.38 | $825.77 | -$92.61 | 55% 43011-35367 (78378) |
PR primm | Underavg 77¢ | $589.05 | $596.7 | +$7.65 | 45% 970-1164 (2134) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 27.4¢ | $297.58 | $352.63 | +$55.04 | 53% 6396-5735 (12131) |
TO torta.tech | Underavg 59¢ | $122.13 | $121.1 | -$1.03 | 75% 5987-2005 (7992) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $6.24 | $40.56 | +$34.32 | 61% 4327-2785 (7112) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 39.8¢ | $6.5 | $3.59 | -$2.91 | 55% 11679-9574 (21253) |
RN1Invested
$918.38
Value
$825.77
PnL
-$92.61
Record
55%
43011-35367 (78378)
Invested
$589.05
Value
$596.7
PnL
+$7.65
Record
45%
970-1164 (2134)
Invested
$297.58
Value
$352.63
PnL
+$55.04
Record
53%
6396-5735 (12131)
Invested
$122.13
Value
$121.1
PnL
-$1.03
Record
75%
5987-2005 (7992)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$40.56
PnL
+$34.32
Record
61%
4327-2785 (7112)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$3.59
PnL
-$2.91
Record
55%
11679-9574 (21253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.