Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Utah, while the market favors Houston (78%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Utah (-7.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (80%) · Utah at 23¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Utah23¢Houston77¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 80%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 22.5¢

-47% since entry · 4 traders

Smart Money Signal

Utah

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Houston 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Utah23%

Houston78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares9,054

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Houston1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,395

Combined PnL+$0

Utah — 80%Houston — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Houston) and the top 1000 (3 on Utah) disagree here.

whaleUtah 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUtah 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUtah 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedHouston 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Utah 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Utahavg 42¢	$2.8K	$1.3K	$-1.5K	55% 11679-9574 (21253)
RN1	Houstonavg 79¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	55% 43011-35367 (78378)
VeryLucky888CTR	Utahavg 42.3¢	$1.5K	$643.64	-$144.35	58% 31291-22609 (53900)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Utahavg 43¢	$180.17	$142.46	-$37.71	61% 4327-2785 (7112)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Utahavg 43¢	$39.99	$31.62	-$8.37	75% 2617-875 (3492)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Utah

Invested

$2,793.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

55%

11679-9574 (21253)

RN1

Houston

Invested

$1,102.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

43011-35367 (78378)

VeryLucky888CTR

Utah

Invested

$1,519.9

Value

$643.64

PnL

-$144.35

Record

58%

31291-22609 (53900)

Forecastication2CTR

Utah

Invested

$180.17

Value

$142.46

PnL

-$37.71

Record

61%

4327-2785 (7112)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$39.99

Value

$31.62

PnL

-$8.37

Record

75%

2617-875 (3492)

Smart Money Signal

Utah

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Houston 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Houston) and the top 1000 (3 on Utah) disagree here.

whaleUtah 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUtah 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUtah 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedHouston 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Utah 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.