Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Utah, while the market favors Houston (68%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Utah (-5.5)
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (33%) · Utah at 32¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25
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Contrarian
Utah
3
Utah 33%
$14.0K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Houston 68%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Houstonavg 45.3¢ | $6.2K | $9.3K | +$3.7K | 55% 11679-9574 (21253) |
WO wollaoCTR | Utahavg 55¢ | $10.0K | $4.6K | $-5.4K | — 3-2 (5) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Houstonavg 51¢ | $24.48 | $32.64 | +$8.16 | 65% 2682-1438 (4120) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.