Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Houston, while the market favors Utah (76%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Houston (-2.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Houston (50%) · Houston at 24¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Houston24¢Utah76¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Houston

Consensus Traders

Houston 50%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$530.98

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 24¢

-46% since entry · 3 traders

Smart Money Signal

Houston

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Houston24%

Utah76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Houston3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,893

Combined PnL+$114.6

Utah3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,098

Combined PnL+$416.38

Houston — 50%Utah — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Houstonavg 43.4¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$174.26	55% 30-25 (55)
HO HomeRunHazard	Utahavg 56.9¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$346.49	55% 11679-9574 (21253)
JU justaluckydude	Utahavg 50.2¢	$720.13	$789.25	+$69.12	53% 6396-5735 (12131)
PR primmCTR	Houstonavg 51¢	$506.83	$447.21	-$59.63	45% 970-1164 (2134)
TA takeormake<$100	Utahavg 46¢	$3.95	$4.73	+$0.77	55% 2890-2386 (5276)
RN1CTR<$100	Houstonavg 44¢	$1.48	$1.44	-$0.03	55% 43011-35367 (78378)

lightotunnel35CTR

Houston

Invested

$2,126.91

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$174.26

Record

55%

30-25 (55)

HomeRunHazard

Utah

Invested

$1,511.94

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$346.49

Record

55%

11679-9574 (21253)

justaluckydude

Utah

Invested

$720.13

Value

$789.25

PnL

+$69.12

Record

53%

6396-5735 (12131)

primmCTR

Houston

Invested

$506.83

Value

$447.21

PnL

-$59.63

Record

45%

970-1164 (2134)

takeormake<$100

Utah

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.77

Record

55%

2890-2386 (5276)

RN1CTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

43011-35367 (78378)

Smart Money Signal

Houston

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.