Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$318.16

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 32 top traders (59%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares8,659

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,764

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 98.4¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$50.26	83% 44009-8805 (52814)
TH THG.	Downavg 98.8¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$29.91	78% 10359-2902 (13261)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 79.4¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$421.43	56% 6769-5279 (12048)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.4¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$280.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.5¢	$702.36	—	-$702.36
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 37¢	$901.31	$575.33	-$325.98	56% 7503-5890 (13393)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$594.52	—	-$594.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.3¢	$306.78	$575.33	+$268.54
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$711.41	$756.73	+$45.33	56% 14407-11201 (25608)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$364.6	$756.73	+$392.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.1¢	$346.8	—	-$346.8
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$759.74	$740.32	-$19.42	55% 6619-5425 (12044)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.5¢	$433.13	$740.32	+$307.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$326.61	—	-$326.61
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$589.46	$661.67	+$72.21	61% 11404-7415 (18819)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$332.62	$661.67	+$329.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$256.84	—	-$256.84
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 62.2¢	$695.43	$584.88	-$110.55	49% 4558-4672 (9230)
AR arbfinder2026CTR	Upavg 24.7¢	$359.66	—	-$359.66	61% 4443-2899 (7342)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 50.5¢	$667.21	—	-$667.21	56% 31244-24122 (55366)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 76.5¢	$383.12	—	-$383.12	56% 13385-10446 (23831)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 54.2¢	$325.44	$475	+$149.57	57% 11070-8397 (19467)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$340.73	$322.14	-$18.59	65% 14859-7908 (22767)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$186.62	$322.14	+$135.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.6¢	$154.11	—	-$154.11
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$318.64	$327.08	+$8.44	58% 12709-9096 (21805)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$167.66	$327.08	+$159.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$150.98	—	-$150.98
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 50¢	$311.5	—	-$311.5	68% 40651-18757 (59408)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 70.8¢	$451.45	$197.68	-$253.77	59% 14467-10261 (24728)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.8¢	$274.22	—	-$274.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.7¢	$177.22	$197.68	+$20.46
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96.1¢	$231.51	$241	+$9.49	93% 20107-1616 (21723)
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 31.4¢	$185.41	—	-$185.41	66% 3062-1610 (4672)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$355.81	$192.84	-$162.97	59% 14075-9746 (23821)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.8¢	$177	$192.84	+$15.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.7¢	$178.81	—	-$178.81
wowitsamazingARB<$100	Upavg 24.4¢	$117.6	$120	+$2.4	63% 9720-5674 (15394)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.4¢	$87.6	—	-$87.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 25¢	$30	$120	+$90
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 68¢	$581.58	$301	-$176.07	53% 11684-10256 (21940)
NIULAI4	Downavg 96¢	$164.16	$171	+$6.84	78% 8868-2495 (11363)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$196.84	$140	-$56.84	58% 9961-7325 (17286)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.9¢	$107.6	$140	+$32.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$89.24	—	-$89.24
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324	Downavg 29¢	$158.91	$548.21	+$389.3	51% 756-727 (1483)
UpandDownSyndrome	Downavg 97.8¢	$106.58	$109.03	+$2.45	62% 38175-23700 (61875)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,042.71

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$50.26

Record

83%

44009-8805 (52814)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,501.09

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$29.91

Record

78%

10359-2902 (13261)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,783.42

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$421.43

Record

56%

6769-5279 (12048)

Both legs:

Down$1,081.0679.4¢+$280.93

Up$702.3667.5¢-$702.36

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$901.31

Value

$575.33

PnL

-$325.98

Record

56%

7503-5890 (13393)

Both legs:

Up$594.5237¢-$594.52

Down$306.7853.3¢+$268.54

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$711.41

Value

$756.73

PnL

+$45.33

Record

56%

14407-11201 (25608)

Both legs:

Down$364.648.2¢+$392.13

Up$346.847.1¢-$346.8

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$759.74

Value

$740.32

PnL

-$19.42

Record

55%

6619-5425 (12044)

Both legs:

Down$433.1358.5¢+$307.19

Up$326.6155¢-$326.61

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$589.46

Value

$661.67

PnL

+$72.21

Record

61%

11404-7415 (18819)

Both legs:

Down$332.6250.3¢+$329.05

Up$256.8440.3¢-$256.84

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$695.43

Value

$584.88

PnL

-$110.55

Record

49%

4558-4672 (9230)

arbfinder2026CTR

Invested

$359.66

Value

—

PnL

-$359.66

Record

61%

4443-2899 (7342)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$667.21

Value

—

PnL

-$667.21

Record

56%

31244-24122 (55366)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$383.12

Value

—

PnL

-$383.12

Record

56%

13385-10446 (23831)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$325.44

Value

$475

PnL

+$149.57

Record

57%

11070-8397 (19467)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$340.73

Value

$322.14

PnL

-$18.59

Record

65%

14859-7908 (22767)

Both legs:

Down$186.6257.9¢+$135.52

Up$154.1136.6¢-$154.11

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$318.64

Value

$327.08

PnL

+$8.44

Record

58%

12709-9096 (21805)

Both legs:

Down$167.6651.3¢+$159.42

Up$150.9847.8¢-$150.98

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$311.5

Value

—

PnL

-$311.5

Record

68%

40651-18757 (59408)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$451.45

Value

$197.68

PnL

-$253.77

Record

59%

14467-10261 (24728)

Both legs:

Up$274.2270.8¢-$274.22

Down$177.2289.7¢+$20.46

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$231.51

Value

$241

PnL

+$9.49

Record

93%

20107-1616 (21723)

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$185.41

Value

—

PnL

-$185.41

Record

66%

3062-1610 (4672)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$355.81

Value

$192.84

PnL

-$162.97

Record

59%

14075-9746 (23821)

Both legs:

Down$17791.8¢+$15.84

Up$178.8171.7¢-$178.81

wowitsamazingARB<$100

Invested

$117.6

Value

$120

PnL

+$2.4

Record

63%

9720-5674 (15394)

Both legs:

Up$87.624.4¢-$87.6

Down$3025¢+$90

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$581.58

Value

$301

PnL

-$176.07

Record

53%

11684-10256 (21940)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$164.16

Value

$171

PnL

+$6.84

Record

78%

8868-2495 (11363)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$196.84

Value

$140

PnL

-$56.84

Record

58%

9961-7325 (17286)

Both legs:

Down$107.676.9¢+$32.4

Up$89.2463.8¢-$89.24

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Down

Invested

$158.91

Value

$548.21

PnL

+$389.3

Record

51%

756-727 (1483)

UpandDownSyndrome

Down

Invested

$106.58

Value

$109.03

PnL

+$2.45

Record

62%

38175-23700 (61875)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 32 top traders (59%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x02b90159...b6ca77

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792901400

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $3.1K

+$50.26

THG.

Down — $2.5K

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$45.33

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$19.42

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$72.21

ply-pm0

Down — $584.88

arbfinder2026

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0