Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 100¢ · $272 held · ended Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚡

Medium

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

Total Value

$272.47

Combined PnL

$28.09

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 5 traders

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$272.45

Total Shares274

Combined PnL+$28.09

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 82.1¢	$142.9	$154.97	+$12.06	61% 11404-7415 (18819)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 81.9¢	$42.38	$42	-$0.38	55% 6619-5425 (12044)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$24.21	$33.32	+$9.11	56% 11527-9100 (20627)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Downavg 79¢	$22.95	$25.5	+$2.55	65% 14859-7908 (22767)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 70.1¢	$11.92	$16.66	+$4.74	62% 16852-10435 (27287)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$142.9

Value

$154.97

PnL

+$12.06

Record

61%

11404-7415 (18819)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$42.38

Value

$42

PnL

-$0.38

Record

55%

6619-5425 (12044)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$24.21

Value

$33.32

PnL

+$9.11

Record

56%

11527-9100 (20627)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Down

Invested

$22.95

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$2.55

Record

65%

14859-7908 (22767)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$11.92

Value

$16.66

PnL

+$4.74

Record

62%

16852-10435 (27287)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.