Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 100¢ · $876 held · ended Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔥

Strong

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

Total Value

$875.65

Combined PnL

$69.84

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 100¢

+43% since entry · 8 traders

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$875.31

Total Shares879

Combined PnL+$71.9

Up1 trader

Total Value$0.34

Total Shares17

Combined PnL-$2.06

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 45/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrUp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Down 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 69.5¢	$284.16	$274.64	-$7.93	61% 11404-7415 (18819)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 49.9¢	$129.52	$232.53	+$103	68% 40651-18757 (59408)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 89.2¢	$132.08	$99.37	-$32.71	55% 6619-5425 (12044)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 85.4¢	$84.28	$83.44	-$0.84	62% 16852-10435 (27287)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 86.9¢	$83.44	$70.34	-$13.1	56% 11527-9100 (20627)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 79.1¢	$37.8	$46.83	+$9.03	56% 14756-11783 (26539)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Downavg 78¢	$36.12	$42.64	+$6.52	65% 14859-7908 (22767)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$17.6	$25.52	+$7.92	60% 9281-6101 (15382)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 18.4¢	$12.1	$0.34	-$2.06	52% 15199-14039 (29238)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$284.16

Value

$274.64

PnL

-$7.93

Record

61%

11404-7415 (18819)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$129.52

Value

$232.53

PnL

+$103

Record

68%

40651-18757 (59408)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$132.08

Value

$99.37

PnL

-$32.71

Record

55%

6619-5425 (12044)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$84.28

Value

$83.44

PnL

-$0.84

Record

62%

16852-10435 (27287)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$83.44

Value

$70.34

PnL

-$13.1

Record

56%

11527-9100 (20627)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$37.8

Value

$46.83

PnL

+$9.03

Record

56%

14756-11783 (26539)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Down

Invested

$36.12

Value

$42.64

PnL

+$6.52

Record

65%

14859-7908 (22767)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$17.6

Value

$25.52

PnL

+$7.92

Record

60%

9281-6101 (15382)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$12.1

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$2.06

Record

52%

15199-14039 (29238)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 45/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrUp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Down 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.