Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (88%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚡

Medium

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$42.76

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,627

Combined PnL+$43.64

Up1 trader

Total Value$0.18

Total Shares18

Combined PnL-$0.87

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrUp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Down 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$0	78% 10359-2902 (13261)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 85.4¢	$143.84	$130.06	-$13.78	55% 6619-5425 (12044)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$44.4	$87.83	+$43.43	61% 11404-7415 (18819)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 79.6¢	$67.29	$69.38	+$2.09	62% 16852-10435 (27287)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 80.6¢	$73.95	$63.69	-$10.26	56% 11527-9100 (20627)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 75.2¢	$48.35	$63.63	+$15.28	56% 14756-11783 (26539)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Downavg 72¢	$18.36	$25.24	+$6.88	65% 14859-7908 (22767)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$1.05	$0.18	-$0.87	52% 15199-14039 (29238)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,163.93

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

78%

10359-2902 (13261)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$143.84

Value

$130.06

PnL

-$13.78

Record

55%

6619-5425 (12044)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$44.4

Value

$87.83

PnL

+$43.43

Record

61%

11404-7415 (18819)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$67.29

Value

$69.38

PnL

+$2.09

Record

62%

16852-10435 (27287)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$73.95

Value

$63.69

PnL

-$10.26

Record

56%

11527-9100 (20627)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$48.35

Value

$63.63

PnL

+$15.28

Record

56%

14756-11783 (26539)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Down

Invested

$18.36

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$6.88

Record

65%

14859-7908 (22767)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.87

Record

52%

15199-14039 (29238)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrUp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Down 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.