Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (45%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,619

Combined PnL+$89.95

Up5 traders

Total Value$190.98

Total Shares4,705

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Down — 55%Up — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 59.7¢	$717.04	$789.22	+$74.43	61% 11404-7415 (18819)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 57.5¢	$590.24	$528.55	-$61.69	55% 6619-5425 (12044)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 49.6¢	$80.96	$117.8	+$36.84	65% 14859-7908 (22767)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR	Upavg 39.9¢	$1.5K	$112.29	$-1.5K	51% 756-727 (1483)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 43.6¢	$84.55	$108.42	+$23.87	60% 9281-6101 (15382)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100	Upavg 33.9¢	$55.64	$42.29	-$13.35	56% 11527-9100 (20627)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$31.9	$37.42	+$5.53	62% 16852-10435 (27287)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 50¢	$19.18	$30.15	+$10.97	68% 40651-18757 (59408)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR	Upavg 37.7¢	$172.3	$13.72	-$158.58	60% 1435-969 (2404)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 37.7¢	$24.85	$11.49	-$13.36	56% 14756-11783 (26539)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Upavg 36.7¢	$136.87	$11.2	-$125.67	57% 1054-792 (1846)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$717.04

Value

$789.22

PnL

+$74.43

Record

61%

11404-7415 (18819)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$590.24

Value

$528.55

PnL

-$61.69

Record

55%

6619-5425 (12044)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$80.96

Value

$117.8

PnL

+$36.84

Record

65%

14859-7908 (22767)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR

Invested

$1,492.06

Value

$112.29

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

756-727 (1483)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$84.55

Value

$108.42

PnL

+$23.87

Record

60%

9281-6101 (15382)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100

Invested

$55.64

Value

$42.29

PnL

-$13.35

Record

56%

11527-9100 (20627)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$31.9

Value

$37.42

PnL

+$5.53

Record

62%

16852-10435 (27287)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$19.18

Value

$30.15

PnL

+$10.97

Record

68%

40651-18757 (59408)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR

Invested

$172.3

Value

$13.72

PnL

-$158.58

Record

60%

1435-969 (2404)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$24.85

Value

$11.49

PnL

-$13.36

Record

56%

14756-11783 (26539)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Invested

$136.87

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$125.67

Record

57%

1054-792 (1846)

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.