Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚡

Medium

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$93.69

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 99.9¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,254

Combined PnL+$58.72

Up1 trader

Total Value$0.07

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$34.97

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$13.35	93% 20107-1616 (21723)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 77.3¢	$686.87	$702.85	+$15.98	60% 9281-6101 (15382)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$48.9	$78.28	+$29.38	56% 14756-11783 (26539)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$22.5	$0.07	+$34.97	52% 15199-14039 (29238)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,458.17

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$13.35

Record

93%

20107-1616 (21723)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$686.87

Value

$702.85

PnL

+$15.98

Record

60%

9281-6101 (15382)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$48.9

Value

$78.28

PnL

+$29.38

Record

56%

14756-11783 (26539)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$34.97

Record

52%

15199-14039 (29238)

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.