Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 100¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,221

Combined PnL+$654.96

Up3 traders

Total Value$545.14

Total Shares5,353

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrDown 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 61.3¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$235.61	60% 9281-6101 (15382)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.3¢	$909.82	$916.74	+$6.92	93% 20107-1616 (21723)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 52.4¢	$646.75	$578.56	+$220.68	53% 7200-6407 (13607)
JO JocJoCTR	Upavg 39.3¢	$1.1K	$509.38	-$558.74	51% 889-854 (1743)
YO YouSayUpISayDown	Downavg 56.5¢	$255.43	$447.18	+$191.75	60% 1435-969 (2404)
IS isawfutureCTR	Upavg 43.5¢	$836	$19.23	-$816.78	49% 156-163 (319)
wowitsamazingCTR	Upavg 33.5¢	$587.43	$16.53	-$536.09	63% 9720-5674 (15394)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$2,024.61

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$235.61

Record

60%

9281-6101 (15382)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$909.82

Value

$916.74

PnL

+$6.92

Record

93%

20107-1616 (21723)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$646.75

Value

$578.56

PnL

+$220.68

Record

53%

7200-6407 (13607)

JocJoCTR

Invested

$1,068.13

Value

$509.38

PnL

-$558.74

Record

51%

889-854 (1743)

YouSayUpISayDown

Down

Invested

$255.43

Value

$447.18

PnL

+$191.75

Record

60%

1435-969 (2404)

isawfutureCTR

Invested

$836

Value

$19.23

PnL

-$816.78

Record

49%

156-163 (319)

wowitsamazingCTR

Invested

$587.43

Value

$16.53

PnL

-$536.09

Record

63%

9720-5674 (15394)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrDown 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.