Cairns Taipans vs. New Zealand Breakers: O/U 189.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 74¢ · $483 held · ended Oct 25
⚡
Medium
Under
3
Under 100%
2 arb excluded
$482.94
$6.93
55.2¢ → 74¢
+34% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Underavg 57¢ | $208.16 | $208.16 | +$0 | 63% 22385-13226 (35611) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51.8¢ | $133.63 | $85.5 | +$9.21 | 58% 31291-22609 (53900) |
 tradecraftARB<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $67.79 | $69.83 | +$2.04 | 52% 5479-5082 (10561) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44¢ | $42.29 | $41.33 | -$0.96 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51¢ | $25.5 | $28.5 | +$3 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 52.6¢ | $67.86 | $69.68 | +$1.82 | 54% 13611-11436 (25047) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.6¢ | $40.01 | $43.32 | +$3.31 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.4¢ | $27.85 | $26.36 | -$1.49 | |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Underavg 53.8¢ | $52.54 | $49.78 | -$2.28 | 50% 152-152 (304) |
Invested
$208.16
Value
$208.16
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
22385-13226 (35611)
VeryLucky888Invested
$133.63
Value
$85.5
PnL
+$9.21
Record
58%
31291-22609 (53900)
tradecraftARB<$100Invested
$67.79
Value
$69.83
PnL
+$2.04
Record
52%
5479-5082 (10561)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.86
Value
$69.68
PnL
+$1.82
Record
54%
13611-11436 (25047)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.54
Value
$49.78
PnL
-$2.28
Record
50%
152-152 (304)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.