Cairns Taipans vs. New Zealand Breakers

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold New Zealand Breakers (40%) · New Zealand Breakers at 72¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Cairns Taipans28¢New Zealand Breakers72¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

New Zealand Breakers

Consensus Traders

New Zealand Breakers 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$10.18

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 71.5¢

+29% since entry · 2 traders

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand Breakers

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cairns Taipans28%

New Zealand Breakers72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Zealand Breakers2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,904

Combined PnL-$18.18

Cairns Taipans3 traders

Total Value$198.11

Total Shares421

Combined PnL+$8

New Zealand Breakers — 40%Cairns Taipans — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 20/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on New Zealand Breakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCairns Taipans 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNew Zealand Breakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCairns Taipans 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedCairns Taipans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cairns Taipans 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Cairns Taipansavg 32.9¢	$773.62	$758.66	+$0.04	46% 270-322 (592)
└ Cairns Taipans leg	Cairns Taipansavg 32.9¢	$463.62	$401.17	-$62.46
└ New Zealand Breakers leg	New Zealand Breakersavg 62¢	$309.99	$357.49	+$62.5
BU button-clicker	New Zealand Breakersavg 51.3¢	$639.42	$685.83	+$46.41	60% 143-96 (239)
LS LSS1	New Zealand Breakersavg 62.8¢	$420.69	$348	-$64.59	71% 1260-503 (1763)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cairns Taipansavg 46.1¢	$239.34	$134.27	+$7.82	58% 31291-22609 (53900)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Cairns Taipansavg 47¢	$47	$47	+$0	65% 2682-1438 (4120)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Cairns Taipansavg 46¢	$16.48	$16.84	+$0.18	47% 1949-2172 (4121)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Cairns Taipans

Invested

$773.62

Value

$758.66

PnL

+$0.04

Record

46%

270-322 (592)

Both legs:

Cairns Taipans$463.6232.9¢-$62.46

New Zealand Breakers$309.9962¢+$62.5

button-clicker

New Zealand Breakers

Invested

$639.42

Value

$685.83

PnL

+$46.41

Record

60%

143-96 (239)

LSS1

New Zealand Breakers

Invested

$420.69

Value

$348

PnL

-$64.59

Record

71%

1260-503 (1763)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cairns Taipans

Invested

$239.34

Value

$134.27

PnL

+$7.82

Record

58%

31291-22609 (53900)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Cairns Taipans

Invested

$47

Value

$47

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

2682-1438 (4120)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Cairns Taipans

Invested

$16.48

Value

$16.84

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

1949-2172 (4121)

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand Breakers

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 20/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on New Zealand Breakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCairns Taipans 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNew Zealand Breakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCairns Taipans 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedCairns Taipans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cairns Taipans 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Zealand Breakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.