Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚡

Medium

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$83.11

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares11,820

Combined PnL+$83.65

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.14

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$0.54

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chriszyy3	Noavg 98.7¢	$11.0K	$11.0K	+$83.33	93% 228-16 (244)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 99.3¢	$605.52	$605.78	+$0.26	77% 1330-396 (1726)
KU kukubaja<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$99.4	$99.45	+$0.05	84% 483-92 (575)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.68	$0.14	-$0.54	47% 3560-4005 (7565)

chriszyy3

Invested

$10,966.56

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$83.33

Record

93%

228-16 (244)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$605.52

Value

$605.78

PnL

+$0.26

Record

77%

1330-396 (1726)

kukubaja<$100

Invested

$99.4

Value

$99.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

84%

483-92 (575)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.54

Record

47%

3560-4005 (7565)

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.