Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 53¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25
⚡
Medium
Under
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$10.3K
$1.1K
46.5¢ → 53¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chongchong37 | Underavg 48.9¢ | $6.2K | $6.8K | +$593.29 | 49% 64-66 (130) |
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Underavg 42¢ | $2.2K | $2.8K | +$544.44 | 48% 114-122 (236) |
CA CannaeCTR | Overavg 58¢ | $459.72 | $467.65 | +$7.93 | 53% 13525-11984 (25509) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 49.4¢ | $194.01 | $220.08 | +$26.07 | 51% 6414-6214 (12628) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.4¢ | $124.79 | $118.68 | -$6.11 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 36.2¢ | $69.22 | $101.4 | +$32.19 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $1.62 | $1.48 | -$0.14 | 58% 1251-901 (2152) |
Invested
$6,241.93
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$593.29
Record
49%
64-66 (130)
Invested
$2,249.87
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$544.44
Record
48%
114-122 (236)
Invested
$459.72
Value
$467.65
PnL
+$7.93
Record
53%
13525-11984 (25509)
Invested
$194.01
Value
$220.08
PnL
+$26.07
Record
51%
6414-6214 (12628)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.62
Value
$1.48
PnL
-$0.14
Record
58%
1251-901 (2152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.