Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sydney FC win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 16¢ · $904 held · ended Oct 25

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$904.07

Combined PnL

$15.55

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 16¢

-62% since entry · 4 traders

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$695.08

Total Shares1,548

Combined PnL+$29.08

No3 traders

Total Value$208.99

Total Shares370

Combined PnL-$13.53

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$319.74	$334.83	+$15.09	53% 13525-11984 (25509)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 42¢	$280.48	$293.84	+$13.36	51% 189-184 (373)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 57.4¢	$176.26	$172.11	-$4.15	59% 13706-9524 (23230)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$45.78	$47.96	+$2.18	54% 13611-11436 (25047)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 54.3¢	$490.66	$34.36	-$9.47	58% 31291-22609 (53900)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$20	$18.46	-$1.54	36% 12736-22337 (35073)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 82¢	$2.42	$2.52	+$0.1	58% 1251-901 (2152)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$319.74

Value

$334.83

PnL

+$15.09

Record

53%

13525-11984 (25509)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$280.48

Value

$293.84

PnL

+$13.36

Record

51%

189-184 (373)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$176.26

Value

$172.11

PnL

-$4.15

Record

59%

13706-9524 (23230)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.78

Value

$47.96

PnL

+$2.18

Record

54%

13611-11436 (25047)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$490.66

Value

$34.36

PnL

-$9.47

Record

58%

31291-22609 (53900)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$18.46

PnL

-$1.54

Record

36%

12736-22337 (35073)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

1251-901 (2152)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.