Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 45¢ · $100 held · ended Oct 25
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Contrarian
No
5
No 60%
$99.62
-$24.27
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $41.4 | $42.6 | +$4.8 | 58% 1251-901 (2152) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $40.69 | $42.49 | +$1.8 | 53% 13525-11984 (25509) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $5.77 | $6.02 | +$0.25 | 54% 13611-11436 (25047) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $7.98 | $4.45 | -$3.53 | 51% 6414-6214 (12628) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 29¢ | $1.4K | $4.07 | -$27.59 | 58% 31291-22609 (53900) |
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$41.4
Value
$42.6
PnL
+$4.8
Record
58%
1251-901 (2152)
Invested
$40.69
Value
$42.49
PnL
+$1.8
Record
53%
13525-11984 (25509)
Invested
$5.77
Value
$6.02
PnL
+$0.25
Record
54%
13611-11436 (25047)
Invested
$7.98
Value
$4.45
PnL
-$3.53
Record
51%
6414-6214 (12628)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,429.95
Value
$4.07
PnL
-$27.59
Record
58%
31291-22609 (53900)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.