Guangzhou 2: Coleman Wong vs Tristan Schoolkate

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Coleman Wong (67%) · Coleman Wong at 61¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 1

Coleman Wong61¢Tristan Schoolkate39¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

Coleman Wong

Consensus Traders

Coleman Wong 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 60.5¢

-22% since entry · 10 traders

Smart Money Signal

Coleman Wong

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Coleman Wong61%

Tristan Schoolkate40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Coleman Wong10 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares9,702

Combined PnL-$94.65

Tristan Schoolkate5 traders

Total Value$731.92

Total Shares7,205

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Coleman Wong — 67%Tristan Schoolkate — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Coleman Wong. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColeman Wong 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpColeman Wong 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrColeman Wong 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedColeman Wong 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Coleman Wong 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Coleman Wongavg 78¢	$14.1K	$12.6K	$-1.4K	68% 30682-14740 (45422)
└ Coleman Wong leg	Coleman Wongavg 78¢	$12.5K	$10.0K	$-2.5K
└ Tristan Schoolkate leg	Tristan Schoolkateavg 22.4¢	$1.6K	$2.6K	+$1.0K
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Coleman Wongavg 81.8¢	$8.3K	$7.4K	-$824.12	55% 11679-9574 (21253)
└ Coleman Wong leg	Coleman Wongavg 81.8¢	$5.3K	$4.0K	$-1.2K
└ Tristan Schoolkate leg	Tristan Schoolkateavg 32.8¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$421.93
RN1	Coleman Wongavg 82¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$226.27	55% 43011-35367 (78378)
0X 0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948	Coleman Wongavg 81¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	-$462.5	68% 384-183 (567)
EF efntrick	Coleman Wongavg 65.7¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$302.28	48% 3434-3705 (7139)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 36.1¢	$989.14	$1.1K	+$70.2	53% 12053-10832 (22885)
└ Tristan Schoolkate leg	Tristan Schoolkateavg 36.1¢	$668.55	$730.61	+$62.05
└ Coleman Wong leg	Coleman Wongavg 59¢	$320.59	$328.74	+$8.15
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Coleman Wongavg 91¢	$910	$900	-$185	51% 945-911 (1856)
C6 C63AMGCTR	Tristan Schoolkateavg 40.1¢	$1.6K	$620	-$967.99	73% 847-313 (1160)
tradecraft	Coleman Wongavg 69.3¢	$525.56	$499.94	-$25.62	52% 5479-5082 (10561)
GH ghostorder	Coleman Wongavg 79¢	$158	$159	+$1	68% 3907-1866 (5773)
BI BillBenter2026	Coleman Wongavg 86.7¢	$127.73	$132.52	+$4.79	58% 16066-11724 (27790)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Tristan Schoolkateavg 42¢	$267.54	$63.7	-$203.84	65% 2682-1438 (4120)
HRTrading<$100	Coleman Wongavg 76¢	$47.31	$56.03	-$0.31	58% 1251-901 (2152)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Tristan Schoolkateavg 34.3¢	$103.56	$30.15	-$73.4	54% 13611-11436 (25047)
FL flatbarrel	Coleman Wongavg 83.2¢	$770.35	$12.33	+$42.76	59% 2576-1776 (4352)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 42¢	$11.32	$11.18	-$0.13	49% 10935-11295 (22230)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 34¢	$5.43	$6.88	+$0.62	55% 6288-5054 (11342)
0X 0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346<$100	Coleman Wongavg 60¢	$3.32	$4.99	+$1.66	48% 90-99 (189)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$14,079.27

Value

$12.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

68%

30682-14740 (45422)

Both legs:

Coleman Wong$12,525.1878¢$-2.5K

Tristan Schoolkate$1,554.122.4¢+$1.0K

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$8,260.6

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$824.12

Record

55%

11679-9574 (21253)

Both legs:

Coleman Wong$5,284.2781.8¢$-1.2K

Tristan Schoolkate$2,976.3332.8¢+$421.93

RN1

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,319.32

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$226.27

Record

55%

43011-35367 (78378)

0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,024.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$462.5

Record

68%

384-183 (567)

efntrick

Coleman Wong

Invested

$1,910.51

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$302.28

Record

48%

3434-3705 (7139)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$989.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$70.2

Record

53%

12053-10832 (22885)

Both legs:

Tristan Schoolkate$668.5536.1¢+$62.05

Coleman Wong$320.5959¢+$8.15

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Coleman Wong

Invested

$910

Value

$900

PnL

-$185

Record

51%

945-911 (1856)

C63AMGCTR

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$1,587.99

Value

$620

PnL

-$967.99

Record

73%

847-313 (1160)

tradecraft

Coleman Wong

Invested

$525.56

Value

$499.94

PnL

-$25.62

Record

52%

5479-5082 (10561)

ghostorder

Coleman Wong

Invested

$158

Value

$159

PnL

+$1

Record

68%

3907-1866 (5773)

BillBenter2026

Coleman Wong

Invested

$127.73

Value

$132.52

PnL

+$4.79

Record

58%

16066-11724 (27790)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$267.54

Value

$63.7

PnL

-$203.84

Record

65%

2682-1438 (4120)

HRTrading<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$47.31

Value

$56.03

PnL

-$0.31

Record

58%

1251-901 (2152)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$103.56

Value

$30.15

PnL

-$73.4

Record

54%

13611-11436 (25047)

flatbarrel

Coleman Wong

Invested

$770.35

Value

$12.33

PnL

+$42.76

Record

59%

2576-1776 (4352)

sentrioCTR<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$11.32

Value

$11.18

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

10935-11295 (22230)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$5.43

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$0.62

Record

55%

6288-5054 (11342)

0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$3.32

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$1.66

Record

48%

90-99 (189)

Smart Money Signal

Coleman Wong

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Coleman Wong. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColeman Wong 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpColeman Wong 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrColeman Wong 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedColeman Wong 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Coleman Wong 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Coleman Wong wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.