Lyon Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Taylor Fritz (33%) · Taylor Fritz at 64¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
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Weak
Taylor Fritz
3
Taylor Fritz 33%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
-$77.72
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K5 k56 | Taylor Fritzavg 66¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$75.76 | 58% 875-646 (1521) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Lorenzo Musettiavg 34¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$55.71 | 58% 31291-22609 (53900) |
| └ Lorenzo Musetti leg | Lorenzo Musettiavg 34¢ | $947.14 | $1.0K | +$55.71 | |
| └ Taylor Fritz leg | Taylor Fritzavg 64¢ | $514.88 | $514.88 | +$0 | |
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR | Lorenzo Musettiavg 36¢ | $145.94 | $145.94 | -$2.03 | 49% 295-311 (606) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Lorenzo Musettiavg 35¢ | $2.15 | $2.22 | +$0.06 | 54% 13611-11436 (25047) |
Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$75.76
Record
58%
875-646 (1521)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$1,462.02
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$55.71
Record
58%
31291-22609 (53900)
Both legs:
Invested
$145.94
Value
$145.94
PnL
-$2.03
Record
49%
295-311 (606)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.22
PnL
+$0.06
Record
54%
13611-11436 (25047)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.