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Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 100%
Total Value
$7.0K
Combined PnL
$76.29
Smart Money Entry
97.4¢ → 98.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes2%
No98%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$7.0K
Total Shares7,101
Combined PnL+$76.29
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 97¢ | $5.1K | $5.2K | +$73.8 | 60% 780-529 (1309) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 98.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$1.43 | 66% 1090-559 (1649) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 97.9¢ | $196.96 | $198.02 | +$1.06 | 80% 10078-2569 (12647) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance99.5%
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$0.53
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
100.5
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xab644134...e6a333
Slug
anthropic-lab-leak-by-december-31-2026