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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚡
Medium
No
5
No 80%
$1.6K
$72.76
93.8¢ → 98.6¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
855h old
Late Entry
High
Score 80/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI KiernanMeister | Noavg 93¢ | $527.75 | $558.97 | +$31.21 | 52% 974-898 (1872) |
57 57284910 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $552 | $544 | +$0.86 | — 17-0 (17) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 90¢ | $392.85 | $430.17 | +$37.32 | 50% 1777-1808 (3585) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $69 | $76.33 | +$7.33 | 73% 2877-1050 (3927) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $5.83 | $1.87 | -$3.96 | 74% 2393-862 (3255) |
Invested
$527.75
Value
$558.97
PnL
+$31.21
Record
52%
974-898 (1872)
Invested
$552
Value
$544
PnL
+$0.86
Record
—
17-0 (17)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$392.85
Value
$430.17
PnL
+$37.32
Record
50%
1777-1808 (3585)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$69
Value
$76.33
PnL
+$7.33
Record
73%
2877-1050 (3927)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$5.83
Value
$1.87
PnL
-$3.96
Record
74%
2393-862 (3255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.