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1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $7K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
2
No 100%
Total Value
$7.0K
Combined PnL
$76.57
Smart Money Entry
93.4¢ → 98.7¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes1%
No99%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$7.0K
Total Shares7,136
Combined PnL+$76.57
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 93¢ | $6.2K | $6.5K | +$95.13 | 88% 2063-287 (2350) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98.3¢ | $409.68 | $512.64 | -$18.57 | 80% 10078-2569 (12647) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance99.7%
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$0.33
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
100.3
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x877b8ff7...7e0cb3
Slug
1-megaton-meteor-strike-in-2026